By Dave Millhouser

On the way to my friends shop, the cell phone beeped with a text message: "Can you pick up something for me at DD?" Since my friend runs a scuba shop, I couldnt fathom (diving pun intended) what shed want at Detroit Diesel. Turns out it was coffee-- from Dunkin Donuts.

For folks in the coach industry, DD has been synonymous with engine for a bazillion years. Since WW2, there have been few engines that worked well in coaches, but Detroit Diesels did and it dominated the business until recently.

Government regulations and international economic factors are altering the engine landscape in ways that are not yet clearly defined. The only certainty is change.

Western nations are making dramatic demands in terms of reducing engine emissions. The cost of developing power plants that meet the new regulations is huge.

Manufacturers have cleverly figured out that if it costs $1 million to design an engine-- and they sell one million -- the cost of designing that engine is $1 per unit. If the only sell 10, then that cost is $100,000 per unit.

Engineering expenses dont care how many are sold, so the trick is to sell lots of them.

In this arena, $1 million is chump change. One engine builder says it spent $1 billion developing its 2010 engines.

The massive investments required are changing the face of the industry in a couple of ways. Bear in mind that the average annual market for motorcoaches in the U.S. is generally around 2,000-2,500, while the GBM (Great Big Mother) truck number is above 200,000.

Engine guys cant afford to jump through hoops for us.

Several things are happening. Mergers and strategic alliances are becoming critical. Economies of scale that apply to engines also can apply to the other aspects of vehicle engineering.

School bus manufacturers bond with specific chassis builders (Thomas/Freightliner, Amtran/IHC). Coach builders meld with truck manufacturers that are corporate siblings (Setra/Detroit Diesel/Freightliner, Prevost/Volvo).

In addition to engines, lots of other engineering is shared, with significant savings.

Independent truck and coach manufacturers end up in alliances with independent engine builders. Some may introduce offshore engines here, as U.S. and European regulations become more compatible.

One unintended consequence of expensive regulation is that some engine builders may bail out, deciding that over-the-road engines arent worth the investment and risk. One already has done so. Reduced competition in the engine market could cause higher prices.

Simply put, soon your choice of engine will be dictated by the coach you buy-- or vice versa.

Until recently, in school buses, you could buy your brand of body and have it mounted on the chassis of your choice. A wave of consolidations hit the industry, and the effect is that now, if you want a Thomas body, you have to buy a Freightliner chassis. A customer who wants an IC chassis can only get it with an Amtran body.

The results surprised a bunch of folks. Body builders thought customers loved them, regardless of chassis. Chassis manufacturers thought the same thing. Neither was right all the time, and it took time for the schizophrenia to heal.

Coach sellers will have to sort out similar situations. Which matters most-- body or engine?

Engine manufacturers are focused on how theyll meet the next round of regulation. The choices they make -- or have made -- may have minimal impact on truck design, but create headaches for buses. The big stinker is the likelihood of chemical after-treatment for exhaust gases. Some engines will have it, some may not. What about infrastructure and maintenance?

Traditionally, engine maintenance was a small part of the overall cost of coach operation. The new extra stuff all engine builders are hanging on their engines does break sometimes and if your engine breaks, youre in poop. About the time they master one technology its on to the next wave.

Since all modern engines are good, and none perfect, and since each brand is going to be subject to waves of change, should your choice of coach be dictated by its engine?

Ive always felt the best engine was the one with the best dealer. With new technologies rolling in regularly, that may be truer than ever. As you look at future purchases, at least two things are worth considering: How good is the engines service network? How much effort has the coach builder invested in making sure you will be taken care of?

You might consider the strength of suppliers because the economics that dictate "grow or die" are likely to strengthen. Strong manufacturers are more likely to get things right in the first place and solve problems quickly when they goof.

If youre happy with your current coach brand but anticipate being forced into a new power plant, NOW is the time to check out local service for alternate engines. Ask questions of folks using that brand of motor, and do some research on how the manufacturer intends to deal with future regulation (and how that will fit in coaches).

Remember music on CDs and cassettes? Often a single technology ends up dominating. It may take some effort to figure out which will prevail but thats small potatoes compared to having a glove box full of cassettes. Or, (OMG) eight-tracks.

Dave Millhouser is a bus industry marketing consultant and freelance writer. Contact him at: dave_millhouser@hotmail.com.