By Dave Millhouser

We called him the "Educated Idiot."

Long on education but short on experience, Dave had stumbled into the bus business and was planning a ski charter from Atlanta to Colorados High Country.

In an effort to outmuscle Mother Nature, he equipped his PD4106 with a tank heater, oil pan heater, block heater and the always popular battery heater.

We offered him indoor parking, but he was confident his electronics and hydra-headed heating system would triumph. So, he plugged in, outside, at the motel.

While he slept, the cumulative load blew the circuit breaker, and the bus froze solid.

We all know someone like that, and for years we Real Bus Folks have laughed at them. Ours is a business where experience is king, and the business models that other industries use just dont work for us. Or, so we thought.

It now appears our industry is in the midst of a Darwinian shift. It may be time to take a look at the way weve done business in the past, and see if it measures up to the times.

Our current model just may not be sustainable.

Darwin cant be fooled or charmed, and you cant dazzle him with footwork. Hes sneaky, too. Theres no big announcement that Darwin is coming, so you can be surrounded by his nasty Trolls, and not recognize it until its too late.

A partial list of things that have either changed, or become critical, would have to include the fact that our industry spends enormous amounts of money on depreciating assets that are often used seasonally.

If you dont know what a depreciating asset is, look at your high school yearbook picture, then at a recent photo. YOU are a depreciating asset, as are your coaches. Managers in other industries would cringe at how much money we tie up in buses.

Weve always had to do that, but in recent years resale value has become unpredictable (a charitable description). We can no longer count on bus equity as either profit, or as something we can borrow against. Its become dangerous to buy a coach to be able to seize a short-term opportunity.

The public has become convinced that a five-year old bus is obsolescent (with more of that coming when seatbelts and electronic gizmos are mandated in new coaches), yet we can only afford coaches if they last 20 years.

New-coach prices keep climbing due to inflation and government mandates. And manufacturers seem determined to sell them for at least a little more than it costs to build them.

Meanwhile, revenue is static; we cant seem to convince the public of what a coach trip is really worth. In many cases, even if there was no coachly competition, you still couldnt raise prices to a level that covers costs, and the huge risks you take, while providing a reasonable profit. Folks either would not go, or would take cars.

What to do?

Heck if I know, but a couple of things seem wise.

First, we need to look at other industries. Dont mimic them but learn from their experience. In the future, our business is likely to be more like theirs.

See about taking business classes. See whats available in your area, and take advantage of it. Try looking at the bus business through the eyes of folks whove been successful in other disciplines. Compare your numbers and ratios with other types of businesses; were more like them than wed like to admit.

Watch your peers (and competitors). Learn from them, try new things, and then be brutally honest with yourself about what works and what doesnt - and remember Darwin is watching.

One problem youve got is the fact that, no matter how smart you are, some competitors are dingbats who run too cheap. If you can hang on, Darwin will squish them. A combination of tight money and government regulation may help them remain road kill. Its a delicate balancing act.

It would be nice if I could offer ideas that would help. I aint that smart, and if a formula worked, every business would succeed. Try stuff and try to keep ego out of decisions.

Look at your resources and the talents of your employees, and see if there are additional things you can be doing with them. The future belongs to companies that do more than one thing well. Its all about utilization.

In the end, were likely to have a smaller, smarter industry.

The survivors are going to be the ones who adapted, used resources wisely, and learned from other business models. Im not saying I LIKE that, just that Darwin is merciless.

Folks, it seems like we only have two choices. We can be a shivering dinosaur waiting hopefully for warm weather, or the furry mammal scurrying around looking for new ways to eat and keep warm.

Dave Millhouser is a bus industry marketing consultant and freelance writer. Contact him at: dave_millhouser@hotmail.com.