The next several quarters could be challenging for many tour-and-charter bus operators as consumers rein in spending as the crisis in the financial sector spreads to the rest of the economy and the U.S. slides into its first recession since 2001.

The economy probably shrank at a 0.2 percent annual pace during this years third quarter and that will accelerate to 0.8 percent in the final three months of the year, according to the median estimate of 52 economists surveyed in October.

"The U.S. is going to have a long, deep, painful recession," says a senior economist at Wachovia Corp. The 2008-09 recession will be more like 1981-82 than the last two -- in 1991-92 and 2000-01, the Wachovia economist predicts.

A "longer, deeper" recession would extend for at least 16 months -- like in 1981-82, nearly twice the length of a typical downturn.

Other economists agree. "You have to be prepared for the cycle to get worse before it gets better," said one.

With a record 56 cents of every dollar of Americans money going for basic food, energy and health-care costs, the battle for whats left is escalating and that is not good news for businesses that rely on discretionary spending. Talbots is competing with TGI Fridays, Target stores and travel providers for the same consumer dollars.

There are a few silver linings, however. Here are some:

Tour operators eager to find effective selling tools may be able to emphasis cost to an extent they havent been able to in recent years.

Some analysts believe hotel room availability and pricing could improve as occupancy rates dip later this year. "Both corporations and individuals are cutting back on travel," says one expert.

That could mean better deals at domestic travel destinations such as Las Vegas, Miami and New York.

Also, the cost of a Caribbean cruise is falling to levels not seen since 2001, according to one travel agent. Why the slide? She speculates there is overcapacity -- too many berths, not enough cruisers. In any event, there are deals to be had.

And, finally, theres the decline in fuel costs.

Global oil demand is sinking like a stone. Some analysts are predicting crude oil prices could fall farther than the 50 percent decline from the record $145 a barrel of four months ago.

"Falling oil prices are one of the good things in the marketplace," said one analyst. "That is a definite positive for coach operators."

Diesel fuel hit a record $4.76 a gallon in July. The U.S. average is now around $3.60 a gallon.