A fascinating new study from the American Transportation Research Institute has taken a comprehensive look at "crash predictors."

The study evaluated and linked past driver traffic violations and convictions with their likelihood of being predictors of future crashes.

ATRI researchers analyzed data on 540,750 drivers gathered over three years to determine future crash predictability.

Working with the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance, the researchers also were able to identify effective enforcement actions to counteract the driving behaviors predictive of future crashes. Plus, the types of education programs that best address potential or current driver behavior problems were identified.

For owners of commercial vehicles, the study provides significant safety-related insight on their drivers.

"Our research now gives us an early warning system, so to speak, where motor carriers can intervene when necessary within their driver force to improve and make a profound impact on safety behavior," said ATRI Chairman Jim Staley.

The study, titled "Predicting Truck Crash Involvement: Developing a Commercial Driver Behavior-Based Model and Recommended Countermeasures," identifies reckless driving and improper turn violations as the two violations associated with the highest increase in the likelihood of a future crash.

The four driving convictions with the highest likelihood of being a precursor of a future crash were: improper or erratic lane change; failure to yield right of way; improper turn, and failure to maintain a proper lane.

The ATRI, which has been conducting transportation studies for more than 50 years, is a nonprofit research arm of the American Trucking Associations and is headquartered in Alexandria, Va.