Editor’s note: This op-ed for Bus & Motorcoach News is written by Brian Dickson, Owner and Principal Consultant of Bus Business Consultants.
Earlier this summer, I exchanged emails with Vic Parra, former President and CEO of the United Motorcoach Association. His words stuck with me:
“Demand is still outpacing supply (thanks to COVID!). But you and I know that at some point — in probably the not-too-distant future — that will change, and the equation will shift back to the pre-COVID days. Sales will slow, pricing will move back to the lowest-cost provider, and margins will drop.”
Vic is right. Operators are enjoying strong demand and healthy margins today, but history tells us that business cycles always turn. Economist Herbert Stein summed it up best: “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
The smartest operators will use today’s “summer” of abundance to prepare for the inevitable “autumn” ahead. Here are five practical steps to get started:
1. Strengthen and stick to your budget.
A budget is not just for lean years — it’s a year-round financial game plan. Even when cash flow is strong, keep approval thresholds in place for major expenditures and treat every expense like you’ll need to justify it in tougher times.
2. Track every expense in real time.
Beware of “ghost invoices” — approved expenses like replacement parts, farm-outs or recruiting fees that don’t show up until months later. Until they arrive, they’re invisible in your books, which can make a good month look better than it really is. Track commitments as soon as they’re made to avoid unwelcome surprises.
Untracked expenses often hide in plain sight — make sure every commitment is logged before it becomes a surprise invoice.
3. Use the good times to make hard changes
Unprofitable services or legacy contracts that barely cover costs don’t fix themselves. When revenue is strong, you have the cushion to address them — positioning your company to emerge leaner and stronger when conditions shift.
4. Lock in revenue protection now
Review client contracts for rate protections, fuel/toll pass-throughs, and minimum service guarantees. These terms are easier to negotiate when demand is high and you have leverage. Use that advantage now — it may not be available later.
5. Stay plugged into your industry network
Your associations, peer groups, and supplier relationships will be invaluable when the market shifts. Strong connections give you early insight into economic changes, government policies, and competitive trends — and they ensure you’re not navigating uncertainty alone. Use today’s calm to strengthen those relationships so you’re prepared when conditions tighten.
In his full article, Brian Dickson shares five additional strategies operators can use to prepare their businesses for the next market cycle. As Sam Walton reminded us, “You can’t just keep doing what works one time, because everything around you is always changing. To succeed, you have to stay out in front of that change.”
You can read the complete 10-step playbook on Brian’s Ground Transportation Insights Substack: Boom Time Blindness – Full Article
