While international tourism boomed around the globe in 2017, visits to the United States fell markedly. Industry leaders attribute the trend to a “Trump slump” – caused by the belief that foreigners are not welcome here.
Some motorcoach operators who serve key international destinations have felt the impact.
“Some of our international clients are experiencing the effects of this first hand and as a result we are as well,” said Anna Wilkinson, marketing manager for Reston Limousine in Sterling, Va., which serves the Washington, D.C., travel market.
Arrivals from other countries fell 3.9 percent in the first six months of the year, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office in the U.S. Department of Commerce. Meanwhile, international travel globally grew by 4 percent, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) in London reported.
The U.S. visitor total of 33.8 million in the first two quarters was about 1.3 million lower than in the first half of 2016. If the U.S. had shared in the 4-percent global growth rate there would have been a gain of 2.7 million visits.
The U.S. decline is attributed to the current value of the U.S. dollar, which is in a relatively strong position compared with foreign currencies, as well as the Trump administration’s policies on immigration and travel from countries that are predominately Muslim.
There is “the feeling by some tourists that they are not welcome,” WTCC President Gloria Guevara told the Miami Herald.
“The confusing and convoluted travel bans have done nothing but worsen the country’s reputation around the world,” travel expert Lee Abbamonte told Forbes magazine.
The tourist decline has been felt in the Washington, D.C., area, Wilkinson said.
“For example, one of our clients — a school for international students — has seen a sharp decrease in new students, which has led to the elimination of one of our shuttles to their campus. Though other parts of our business, not internationally related, have remained steady and show a strong outlook, we do feel this shows a disturbing trend.”
Soft travel
Ray Sargoni, president of Gray Line of San Francisco, Silicon Valley and Monterey, said the company is basing its budgets for 2018 on soft foreign travel.
California tourism was devastated by floods early in 2017 and wildfires in the later months, Sargoni said, but declining foreign interest also is believed to have hurt the state’s international business.
“That is part of it, but nobody tells you that,” he said. “Most of our foreign business comes from Europe and we are hours farther away on this side of the continent, so that affects us a little more.
“I have a friend who lives in Luxembourg and comes to the U.S. every year. He is really upset about the policies (in the U.S.). He decided to spend his money in Russia. He called me and said he had a beautiful time.”
The impact of the international tourism decline appears isolated. Although Florida is a top destination for foreign visitors, the slump hasn’t been felt in Tallahassee, said Matt Brown, general manager of Astro Travel.
“We do zero dollars in international travel. It may affect the Orlando operators more but I have seen no drop off nor increase in travel requests,” Brown said.
Statistics gathered by the National Travel and Tourism Office show great variety in the sourcing of the travel slump. Through the first half of 2017, visits declined 30 percent from the Middle East, 16 percent from Mexico, 14 percent from Central and South America and 2.6 percent from Europe. The WTCC found that travel from Mexico to Canada had grown 53 percent, partly because Canada had ended its visa requirements for Mexicans.
A little more than 8 million Mexicans visited the U.S. from January through June. The National Travel and Tourism Office also tallied 6.5 million visitors from Europe and 16.4 million from other countries categorized only as “overseas.”
Canadian travelers
The first half of the year went well for American destinations favored by Canadians. Visits from the north totaled 9.5 million, a 4.8 percent gain.
Maclean’s, a national magazine based in Toronto, recently reported that politics and their wallets influence Canadians.
“Many Canadians have decided to take a pass on the U.S. for at least four years,” the story began. “When President Donald Trump enacted his unilateral, nasty, morally-dubious travel ban targeting Muslim-majority countries, the Internet’s collective, well-meaning, morally sound response was to turn the tables on Trump and the country that elected him president . . . banning their own cross-border travel was, for several reasons, the right thing to do.”
On the other hand, Maclean’s continued, “In the grand tradition of Canadian frugality, we plan our travel relative to the strength of the loonie. When our dollar is stronger, border lines grow. When it’s weaker, Buffalo’s outlet malls have empty parking lots.”
International travel generated $1.5 trillion in economic activity in the U.S. in 2016, according to the SelectUSA, a program of the Department of Commerce’s International Trade Administration. That was 2.7 percent of gross domestic product.
A typical overseas visitor stays 18 nights and spends $4,360, according to the association U.S. Travel, which says international tourism directly supports 1.2 million jobs and $32.4 billion in wages.
International arrivals dropped 1.3 percent the month after the Trump administration announced a ban on travel from some countries in January. When Trump made a second effort in June to limit visits from some countries arrivals declined 2.8 percent the following month.
Pre-Trump slump
Some travel officials are hesitant to blame the slump entirely on Trump. Roger Dow, president and CEO of the U.S. Travel Association, told USAToday that the decease in international travel began in 2015, before Trump was elected.
Dow attributes that to economic and political forces in Europe, the largest contingency of travelers to the U.S.
But a survey conducted early this year found that 47 percent of corporate travel managers in Europe believe Trump’s policies would reduce travel to the U.S. The survey, conducted by the Global Business Travel Association, determined that 37 percent of U.S. corporate travel managers agreed.
Such concerns prompted Discover Los Angeles, that region’s tourism board, to launch measures reminding potential tourists that California is diverse and welcoming. Officials at the organization said Los Angeles County received 47.3 million visitors in 2016, setting a new record for the sixth consecutive year.
But they warned that U.S. policies could deter 800,000 international visits to Los Angeles over the next three years, costing the area $736 million in direct spending.
“Whenever I meet people traveling, everyone says something about (the U.S.) and nothing is positive,” New Zealand-based travel blogger Liz Carlson told Forbes. “My friends who have traveled there recently are worried about the rules where the Transportation Security Administration can look through your phones or laptops.”
